A fresh new calendar year is underway for capital markets, so much focus is on what we can reasonably expect in the year ahead. But given that capital market movements flow across the beginnings and ends of our calendar pages, it is worthwhile to consider as investors get back up to speed from the holiday season what segments of the markets have been winning thus far, and what areas of the market may have been left behind and offering potential opportunity depending on how events unfold in the weeks ahead.

A New Year is underway for capital markets, and the consensus prognostications are tilted toward a favorable year for both stocks and bonds.

As the year draws to a close and we prepare for our 2024 Economic & Market Outlook in the week ahead (on January 2), we take a break from our regular investment coverage (the Santa Claus Rally is still rocking with the S&P 500 within 38 points of a new all-time high and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield dipping below 3.8%) to wish everyone a Happy New Year and to express our sincere thanks for a great 2023.

Christmas came early to capital markets on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve emerged from its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday with good tidings for investors, sharing tales that inflation continues to come down and labor markets coming into balance.

The age-old stock market adage has rang so true over the past year.  The notion of “sell in May and go away” is based on the historical trend of relative underperformance by stocks during the period from May 1 to October 31.  Of course, the flip side of this adage is the historical trend of relative stock outperformance during the period from November 1 to April 30.

It has been a November to remember. Following a three-month slide from August to October that saw U.S. stocks decline by more than -10% and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield jump by more than a percentage point (ouch and ouch), capital markets roared back to life this month.